Australia v South Africa - The Numbers Behind The Fiasco
Jack Hope looks at some of the data and trends behind Australia's victory over South Africa!
Hey y’all,
This is the first of what will be a sporadic series of articles, using data to review some of the T20 World Cup matches. I’ll be kick-off with Australia v South Africa, as both teams are so weird it would be a huge missed opportunity not to talk about them!
Become a Patreon & Other Ads!
Do you like cricket data? You do! Well we’re making the processed ball-by-ball data from the entire history of the IPL available to anyone that signs up as a Patreon! Sortable by: bowler type, batter handedness, batting position, player name, venue, etc. (If you absolutely cannot afford to support us via Patreon, then happy to share this for free if you follow us here (@JackHope0) and here (@TheCricketPod) and drop me a DM).
What you use it for is up to you, but, as an example, all the evidence presented in this article is sourced from this location.
And obviously, you should be listening to the podcast - which you can find here (or anywhere that plays podcasts really).
And, and, we’re sponsored by Woodstock Cricket. Use the code TCP25, for 25% off their merchandise!
South Africa In A Spin
It is absolutely no secret that South Africa have lined up for this tournament with an astonishingly one dimensional batting line up, virtually incapable of scoring quickly against spin (don’t believe me, then I invite you to spend some time playing around on cricmetric). This weakness was pretty much immediately under the microscope, as their poor start meant they would need to exploit the spinners. Sadly for the Proteas, they were unable to prove the pundits wrong, as Maxwell and Zampa combined for figures of 8-0-45-3.
South Africa’s campaign is likely to be defined as much by the players who aren’t there than those who are, with Faf du Plessis and AB de Villiers two batting stars who are absent from the UAE. It is debatable though, based on recent performance in the IPL, whether either Faf or de Villiers would have solved their problem in this area. Sometimes, for international teams, these problems are tricky to solve.
With Sri Lanka and Bangladesh displaying their riches in the spin department, during the First Round of the World Cup, it looks like this could be a long tournament for the South African batters.
Setting A Losing Total
Across the history of the T20 World Cup, there have been 39 instances where a team batting first has scored under 120. On only 4 occasions has one of those teams gone on to win (excluding rain affected matches). Not to kick a team when they are down, but bearing this in mind, what was the point of Markram’s 40 from 36, Klaasen’s 13 from 13 and Miller’s 16 from 18? Aside from posting a target which was little more than roadkill?
Taking a look at more historic T20 World Cup data, we can see that once a team scores above 130 their chances of winning begin to rise dramatically. These results include a lot of matches between weaker nations, but on the 35 occasions when the team batting first has scored between 130 and 140, they’ve gone on to win 17. A 130s score should have been the target for South Africa, after their early damage, however this was clearly not the game plan.
There are of course Net Run Rate considerations which possibly factored into their decision making, but, it is difficult to imagine that a team who are content to bat for a moderate defeat in their first match, have any realistic prospect of progression. Further mitigation comes from the fact that South Africa were eventually bowled out. This though, I would argue, misses the point. South Africa didn’t bat in a way that could have seen them bowled out for 90, whilst attempting to score 130+, they batted in a way that virtually guaranteed they’d end with about 115. The “riskier” path may only lead to victory 10-20% of the time, but the “safer” option is far less profitable than that.
Quantity Has A Quality All Of Its Own...
So, bearing in mind all of the problems with the South African side, then how did Australia end up winning with only 3 balls to spare? Well let’s start with the selection. Dan Weston crunched the numbers on this front, so ripping from his Twitter, let’s highlight problem number one, they picked the wrong players:
We can also see from that Tweet, that Warner and Finch are not currently, and may never again be, elite level T20 batters. A combined score of 14 off 20 deliveries was well within the expected range of outcomes for this pair, and it immediately piled pressure on the rest of the line-up. Then, at three, they have such a colossally bad player of spin that if he slotted into the South African side, he would actually drag their numbers down.
This could go on, Maxwell aside, there is not a single Australian batter any opposition is genuinely going to fear. Yet, in an excruciating style, they won. And we should give them some credit for this, as, I think there is little doubt that this Australian side executed it’s game plan.
This is a strong bowling side, designed to restrict opposition sides to sub-150 scores, then use its extreme batting depth to grind the opposition down in pursuit. As discussed above, there may not be many scary individuals in the line-up, but Cummins and Starc batting at 8 and 9, is an undoubted strength. Effectively they are working off the idea that if you’re not going to play a particularly good set of batters, then you may well play a lot of them.
Managing The Match-ups
This leads nicely onto another, sometimes overlooked, strength. They are able to extend their batting line-up because they have three bowling options in their top six. Neither Maxwell, Stoinis, or Marsh are bankers to bowl their full set of overs, but between them, with good captaincy, it should be possible to squeeze out four overs to augment their frontline attack.
To illustrate this, the table below shows Stoinis and Maxwell’s performance (since 2019 in domestic cricket), in a couple of match-ups which suit them. Compare their performance here with their overall stat lines, and you’ll see how some smart maneuvering from Finch could turn this attack into more than the sum of its parts. You can also see below, how this pair dovetail together, giving Finch different options depending on the batters.
The performance we saw from Maxwell today, is a great example of how this strength can be exploited. Playing as their fifth bowler, Maxwell picked up the South African Captain, whilst costing his side just a run a ball over his four overs. This was one of many massive wins for Australia.
Whether this mash-up of match-up bowlers, deep batting, and relatively dour cricket, will be effective across the tournament is . However, it looks as though Australia have found a reliable way to produce wins against an exploitable opposition. This, over their next four matches, may well be enough to get them through the group stage.